Investing 102

[ErikLS2]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Couple of things come to mind here:


NEVER be afraid to take a profit (gain).

Nobody ever went broke taking a gain.

When your gain hit big time -- I'd have been scaling it back.... paying the taxes and reinvesting it in other things. THEY ALL might have taken a huge hit in '08 etc --- but the hit would have been to "free money (the gains)".... and as long as you were ahead of the original $2500... that's what counts.

It's okay to go with your gut feeling! What else is there?!?

None of us will ever get it exactly right. For every gut feeling that had us take a gain or loss.... there will be plenty that hit you broadside -- or that keep running after you take some off the top. I've never gotten it perfect. Never will.

All excellent points, and lessons I learned the hard way.

[Beegs]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Oil and related:

I continuously hear the talking heads on TV telling me how lower oil prices are good for the consumer. I'm calling this nothing but talking head bullcrap. The damage this is doing to the COUNTRIES that produce - our STATES that produce - The suppliers that feed this industry pipe and pumps and trucks and anything else they use -- they HAVE to be feeling this big time. California is a producer - Alaska - The Dakotas - Texas.... Oil is important to these regions. So I ask myself -- is it important that I'm saving (pocketing) $30 a week when I fill up the Jeep -- or is it more important that Caterpillar (CAT) sells a $400K tractor... I personally feel these low prices are HURTING the economy not helping it. Where it goes is anybodies guess. We'll just have to wait and see where this goes.

Big fat yes to this. ^^^ Everyone I talk to is excited at the prospect of very low gas prices.... it's not a good thing I tell them. They don't get it.

Once the drillers, frackers etc... start throwing in the towel, the high yield credit market will be decimated along with pain felt in many other areas of our economy. Hopefully wise decisions are made and we roll through this.

[GregWeld]

Apparently the International Monetary Fund agrees with my "cheap oil" assessment!! LOL


http://www.financialexpress.com/arti...conomy/198333/

[WSSix]

Days like today make me think I need to have money sitting as cash in my brokerage account ready to pounce instead of be delayed 3 days or more waiting on the money to transfer.

Crazy times.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by WSSix

Days like today make me think I need to have money sitting as cash in my brokerage account ready to pounce instead of be delayed 3 days or more waiting on the money to transfer.

Crazy times.

There's no hurry Trey. If you're a "trader" - then penny's make a difference.... but if you're buying shares to hold for 2 or 3 years (or way longer) - then try not to get to caught up in the daily swings. You - like all of us - just hates to miss a dollar move, but it's only really a "feel good" thing because in the end it won't affect your performance over the long run.

[SSLance]

Apparently Mr Market enjoyed KMI's earnings call yesterday.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by SSLance

Apparently Mr Market enjoyed KMI's earnings call yesterday.

KMI has been a hard one to own for sure! I'm in it 25,000 shares -- and it's down huge (66% one year)... and the 75% cut in the dividend certainly didn't help -- although will help the company long term (which I'm okay with). An almost 20% bounce up today just shows you how fast things can go "the other way" if there's favorable news (thus the reason I won't sell and guarantee myself the loss!). It's a good - well run entity - that is collateral damage in the Saudi oil "war".

CNBC had a lady on today that owned a "hardware store" in the oil patch somewhere in Texas (sorry - didn't pay any attention to the details)... and she said that business was off 90% - and that they can't continue much longer at that rate. This is the kind of thing that I look at (bigger picture) which lead me to post the "low oil might not be so hot" sentiment. It'll take a lot of consumerism to make up for entire business's going out of business!

The cut in dividend on KMI alone - chopped my dividend from $50K a year to $12,500 ---- not a personal "biggie" for me --- but that dividend is paid to lots and lots of people - and it might be a biggie for many. Cuts like that far surpass the little bit their saving on a tank of gas!

[garage_engineer]

I've been lurking for a while on this forum and this is my first post. I've been trying to read as much as I can on this thread but admittedly haven't gotten through it all so I hope I am not repeating a question that has already been answered...

I follow the automotive industry pretty closely and am seeing EV cars and autonomous driving making some big strides lately. So, I have been searching to find the suppliers that will be growing along with this market. For example, every EV needs a battery pack and autonomous cars use a ton of cameras... Am i one the right track here?

I am just a beginner and will continue reading so I can better understand what a "good" company looks like. I am getting a little bit overwhelmed however with trying to find the suppliers for each company and model (Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, etc.) so any tips on how to go about a search like this would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks to everyone who has shared advice so far... I hope I can return the favor someday.

[WSSix]

Welcome MB. Take your time and keep researching the avenues you're interested in. I know nothing about what you're interested in so I can't help other than to say be patient, balance your risks, and don't get emotional.

Agree 100% Greg. I added to a position today and it's only 1% higher than yesterday. It's long term stuff of course so it doesn't matter really. I just hate missing an opportunity to average down my cost basis.

[68Cuda]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

CNBC had a lady on today that owned a "hardware store" in the oil patch somewhere in Texas (sorry - didn't pay any attention to the details)... and she said that business was off 90% - and that they can't continue much longer at that rate.

So, before the rapid expansion of fracking and the Eagle Ford field exploration and $100 per barrel oil what was the business model of the "hardware store"? Texas has gone through wild swings since oil was first drilled here. One year they are millionaires driving around in overalls in 1 ton pickups trying to figure out how to spend all the money the next year they are all broke and telling the hard luck stories. Meanwhile the rest of us here just work our regular boring jobs and somehow get by. Fortunately since the big bust of the 80s Texas has diversified and the oil lows do not hammer the whole state. When I was interviewing when I went to college the first time (BSME), I avoided the oil companies for that reason. And again, 8 years later, when I went back again (MSME) I was actively aggressively recruited by a few oil companies and oil tool manufacturers and did not interview with a single one.

What does this have to do with "102". Be careful pursuing the latest hot trend, there is almost always a correction looming on the horizon. Many of my peers that went into that field are now doing something else in a different field.

In my industry (semiconductor) the environment of the past few years has been surprisingly hot and the vendors are struggling to keep pace. But, they have been burned so badly in the past that they are wary about increasing capacity and cost. I know - I used to work at one of the capitol equipment manufacturers and our plant was shut down in 2003. In a way I think it is a good thing that they limit their growth. They are artificially throttling the growth and thus reduce the swings. Now semiconductor has its swings also, but it is a bit more stable and forgiving.