Investing 102

[Vegas69]

I can tell you that the Chipotle next to my office has lost 50% of it's business? The line is almost non existent these days.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

I can tell you that the Chipotle next to my office has lost 50% of it's business? The line is almost non existent these days.

The old saying about a reputation taking years to build and can be destroyed in seconds -- or something along those lines...

Sad really --- because they have really good food IMHO.

[slow4dr]

I have been watching VW (vlkay) very closely since the fiasco last year. It continues to go down and down and down. It seems that every time a meeting is held or an announcement is made from the company it goes down even more. There are some meetings scheduled in February to discuss their future so I am expecting more of the same. This is a company I have confidence will pull through whatever lies ahead so I would consider them a long term buy. However, because I am so new to this I am still uneasy playing this game. I'd rather stick with the tried & true(boring) until my comfort level is higher.


A little off-topic but did everyone catch Greg's pic in the new Goodguys Gazette?

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by slow4dr

I have been watching VW (vlkay) very closely since the fiasco last year. It continues to go down and down and down. It seems that every time a meeting is held or an announcement is made from the company it goes down even more. There are some meetings scheduled in February to discuss their future so I am expecting more of the same. This is a company I have confidence will pull through whatever lies ahead so I would consider them a long term buy. However, because I am so new to this I am still uneasy playing this game. I'd rather stick with the tried & true(boring) until my comfort level is higher.


A little off-topic but did everyone catch Greg's pic in the new Goodguys Gazette?

The old saying about NOT trying to catch a falling knife.... usually holds very true in "stock picking". But at some point - there is some "justification" to be used to step in front of the train and make a purchase. I prefer to wait until they stop falling and start coming back up. I've found I don't need to hit the very bottom -- or try to gamble and get way in front of any bad news yet to be announced.

I do agree that they WILL put this behind them and turn the corner = and it would be a good long term holding. We just need to let the dust settle.

[Vegas69]

Chipotle reminds me of the Target security breach fiasco a year or two ago. Soon, the masses will forget that 100 people got sick out of 5,000,000 meals. I'll utilize the Greg Weld philosophy. Once I see the lines start to get longer again, I'll consider a purchase. It's a good meal for 8 bucks and fast. I like their business model. A simple menu with some health points. Their sites are modern and nice.

By the way, I sold out of Target in my immaturity. I haven't researched it, but I'd bet the farm that was a mistake.

[ErikLS2]

I find it strange that this outbreak at Chipotle only affected them and their restaurants source food locally and they had multiple outbreaks in different parts of the country. I don't know but I can't imagine those food suppliers ONLY supply to Chipotle. One of the strains they found is one not commonly found in food. They've looked everywhere for the source and haven't found it. They've also had norovirus and salmonella incidents and the US attorney's office and the FDA have subpoenaed Chiopotle in a criminal investigation of the norovirus outbreak. There aren't any details released but they typically only investigate these things when they suspect suspicious activity apparently.

I'm a fan of Chipotle and I still eat there regularly but this one totally smells like foul play to me.

Think I'm gonna buy some Google and Facebook tonight.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by ErikLS2

I find it strange that this outbreak at Chipotle only affected them and their restaurants source food locally and they had multiple outbreaks in different parts of the country. I don't know but I can't imagine those food suppliers ONLY supply to Chipotle. One of the strains they found is one not commonly found in food. They've looked everywhere for the source and haven't found it. They've also had norovirus and salmonella incidents and the US attorney's office and the FDA have subpoenaed Chiopotle in a criminal investigation of the norovirus outbreak. There aren't any details released but they typically only investigate these things when they suspect suspicious activity apparently.

I'm a fan of Chipotle and I still eat there regularly but this one totally smells like foul play to me.

Think I'm gonna buy some Google and Facebook tonight.

Good observation Erik --- but here's the take-away. This kind of stuff is why you DON'T try to catch a falling knife. We really don't know if there's more to this story! Perhaps nothing - and perhaps there's something yet to be determined.... thus, too early to be a buyer at this point.

[ErikLS2]

I agree Greg, and as I go there all the time, I will know when the long lines return (if they do) indicating customer confidence is back like Todd said. That will happen before the stock market figures it out I'm sure.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by ErikLS2

I agree Greg, and as I go there all the time, I will know when the long lines return (if they do) indicating customer confidence is back like Todd said. That will happen before the stock market figures it out I'm sure.

EXACTLY!!


A perfect example of investing in "what you know". You'll be able to either see the decline or the consumer coming back. You'll also be a judge yourself... just by noting whether or not you still go - how often - and whether or not the food is better or worse etc.

A little "note" on this while I was in Austin this last weekend. I've been wanting to visit a Shake Shack (SHAK) since they went public. The stock has been a typical IPO over hyped flop.... running way up - and then when the hype has settled down - it's come back down to earth and may still be overpriced on a P/E basis etc (it has no E so can't have a P/E).... The burger was very good - and the place was packed at 2PM and still packed at 5PM.... so that location was humming along very nicely. BUT --- Here's the deal that I was reminded of while my group ate. There is a privately owned joint a block away - called Hopdoddy - the consensus of the group (all 20 somethings) was that Hopdoddy had a far better menu and food. So this "market" has about zero barrier to entry... and that market is rather fickle and can shift (in these small - relative to something like McDonalds etc) quickly. But the winner is often the guy that can grow and manage that growth vs the actual "winner" of the food war. So who knows.

[glassman]

Greg, question.

How do people make money on "shorting a stock"?

I'm of the mindset that if you buy something for $6 and sell it for $7, you made a buck.

Can you explain in laymens terms (read, i have a learning problem) on how these "investors" do it? I'm NOT planning on doing this btw, but curious for educations purposes. We may have talked about this a while back, but i didn't pick it up intectually....thanx dude....


Regarding the restaurant's, I was taught by my brother "always go to the busiest place when in a town you do not know".....makes sense now.