Investing 102

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by barrrf

Anyone like NASDAQ: CRON for long term?

Ive got rail, oil, renewable energy, semiconductor, medical devices, and auto in my portfolio currently but am not in any organics per se.

I’ve got 9,000 shares of Canopy Growth (CGC) —- for no other reason than it’s Constellation Brands association.....

These are going to be very volatile — and who knows which one, or ones, are going to be take over candidates - or actually make it etc.

I think you “have to” be invested in stuff like this — in a relative way of course - and the younger (more time) you are the better.

[rustomatic]

If you look at the charts, pot stocks are like potheads: not all that trustworthy. They get sold off en masse on a daily basis. Try Ford, maybe after they go bankrupt from recalls . . .

If you don't have an eye on it every day, the pot stock will take your money and spend it on batteries and Cheetos.

Originally Posted by barrrf

Anyone like NASDAQ: CRON for long term?

Ive got rail, oil, renewable energy, semiconductor, medical devices, and auto in my portfolio currently but am not in any organics per se.

[barrrf]

Originally Posted by rustomatic

If you look at the charts, pot stocks are like potheads: not all that trustworthy. They get sold off en masse on a daily basis. Try Ford, maybe after they go bankrupt from recalls . . .

If you don't have an eye on it every day, the pot stock will take your money and spend it on batteries and Cheetos.

You know that not all growers are for medicinal smoking right? I think with states considering it legalization that there is some potential but I agree its going to be volatile and who knows which ones will be the winners, like the next cryto craze.

But something that is happening quietly, imo, is the rise of CBD consumption. The rise of CBD consumption in the pharma industry would seem to indicate a demand. And with the talks of beverage companies coming out with CBD infused products, I dont want to miss an opportunity for good growth.

Idk. Could also just be a flash in the pan.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by barrrf

You know that not all growers are for medicinal smoking right? I think with states considering it legalization that there is some potential but I agree its going to be volatile and who knows which ones will be the winners, like the next cryto craze.

But something that is happening quietly, imo, is the rise of CBD consumption. The rise of CBD consumption in the pharma industry would seem to indicate a demand. And with the talks of beverage companies coming out with CBD infused products, I dont want to miss an opportunity for good growth.

Idk. Could also just be a flash in the pan.

We never really know about “new” industries like this — all you can do is to be your own “brain” — is this something you see as having potential — can you “afford” to gamble with some portion of your investable assets and see it potentially go to zero - or can you stomach the assault that is surely going to hit you with every up and down?

Investing like this is NOT 101 —- it’s for more advanced investors who understand all the possible pitfalls and possible upsides.... In other words — who the heck knows??? I sure don’t. But I can afford to put some dough up and see where it goes. It’s not for the faint of heart.

[rustomatic]

The pot stock thing has already happened--many of us may have been too busy eating Twinkies to catch it (I was). The good point here is that the "legalized" version of the industry is new, as far as Wall Street goes. That said, the industry is by no means run like regulated industries (being that there is a lot of cartel involvement, not that they don't dip their toes in Wall Street's pool). They're still trying to figure out how to regulate it and so far, they have managed to make the illegal stuff more affordable and attractive all over again. Much like the crypto business, there has been a lot of scamming in the financial sector. Of course there is demand for the thing itself . . .

In getting back to the stock, since the stocks are still relatively new (and played out quickly), they trade like newer stocks, with lots of volatility (which is not a bad thing, so long as you actively manage your holdings). So long as you can ignore the cable-news version of volatility, like it's some kind of bad word, you can benefit from it, but you have to work with it. You cannot be passive.

While a lot of algorithmic trading (60%+ of the market's activity) sticks to large caps like Apple and GM, it also finds a home in the craps, like ACB and NBEV (popular pot stocks). So, if you look at a chart for Ford or GM, you'll see a trend line that goes for a year, but with a pot stock, the line on the graph will go for a week or two. The modern stock does not have a long-term brain.

An hour or two (or twelve) using the resources available free on Yahoo!finance (not the videos) can provide a great deal of helpful enlightenment here.

Term of the day: Average True Range

[SSLance]

So I own a little bit of Garmin... GRMN

Had a real nice surprise when I downloaded quotes this am...

[captainofiron]

With the Fed leveling out the rate hikes is it time to pull the money and run?

Serious question

I have been buying index funds vs individual stocks the past 8-12 months, and I had been thinking about stopping my positions (in my IRA) and putting it I the index funds

But if a recession is coming maybe hiding part of it in bonds?

This really has me feeling anxious like I haven't felt about my portfolio for a really long time

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by captainofiron

With the Fed leveling out the rate hikes is it time to pull the money and run?

Serious question

I have been buying index funds vs individual stocks the past 8-12 months, and I had been thinking about stopping my positions (in my IRA) and putting it I the index funds

But if a recession is coming maybe hiding part of it in bonds?

This really has me feeling anxious like I haven't felt about my portfolio for a really long time

If I think the market is headed south —— I begin to stash cash vs continue to buy — and I WAIT for the market to come down and then I begin to BUY —- nibbling wait — nibble again....

Selling out trying to figure the market is going south —- that’s called “MARKET TIMING” — it never works well.

Here’s what happens to your mental state — you were thinking about selling because you were nervous — you don’t because you can’t make up your mind — then “whatever it is” you were waiting for does finally happen in some form - AND THEN YOU SELL....... losing money and licking your wounds.

Investing is like getting married — you should be in thru thick and thin - in sickness and in health....

When the market sells off — like a 2008/09 event — and stays down — it gives you an opportunity to average your costs down by buying MORE shares for less cost.... the longer that opportunity lasts — the more time you have to put money to work at lower costs.... by averaging down like this — the market has to come back “less” for you to break even - or begin to show a gain. It’s like — you always wanted a 56 Corvette but they were out of reach — and all of a sudden the market collapses the price..... by half. You buy one that was 100% better condition than you’d dreamed of and drive it and love it.... and you hold it and polish it for 7 years.... and the market all of sudden snaps back and your lovely 56 doubles in value back to it’s pre collapse value. You’re looking pretty smug now.

The reason I advocate DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS — they keep paying you whether the market is up or down or sideways.

[captainofiron]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

If I think the market is headed south —— I begin to stash cash vs continue to buy — and I WAIT for the market to come down and then I begin to BUY —- nibbling wait — nibble again....

Selling out trying to figure the market is going south —- that’s called “MARKET TIMING” — it never works well.

Here’s what happens to your mental state — you were thinking about selling because you were nervous — you don’t because you can’t make up your mind — then “whatever it is” you were waiting for does finally happen in some form - AND THEN YOU SELL....... losing money and licking your wounds.

Investing is like getting married — you should be in thru thick and thin - in sickness and in health....

When the market sells off — like a 2008/09 event — and stays down — it gives you an opportunity to average your costs down by buying MORE shares for less cost.... the longer that opportunity lasts — the more time you have to put money to work at lower costs.... by averaging down like this — the market has to come back “less” for you to break even - or begin to show a gain. It’s like — you always wanted a 56 Corvette but they were out of reach — and all of a sudden the market collapses the price..... by half. You buy one that was 100% better condition than you’d dreamed of and drive it and love it.... and you hold it and polish it for 7 years.... and the market all of sudden snaps back and your lovely 56 doubles in value back to it’s pre collapse value. You’re looking pretty smug now.

The reason I advocate DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS — they keep paying you whether the market is up or down or sideways.

Thanks for the "chill pill" reality check haha

I appreciate it

I think I just need to pay less attention to the talking heads

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by captainofiron

Thanks for the "chill pill" reality check haha

I appreciate it

I think I just need to pay less attention to the talking heads

You do have to place a little blind faith in to the “process”. The market goes up and down and sideways...... but that’s why I refer you to the OVERALL charts going out longer term!! Lower on the left - higher on the right.....

Now — the other thing is — people want to focus on their “mistakes” vs the ones they got right — That’s when you need to remain calm - examine the individual company (investment) and either trim it over time - or do you think it can stage a comeback —- think Chipotle (CMP)..... so is the downturn in the name a missed whisper number - or is it fundamental etc - you have to examine what’s going on - and whether or not it’s a buy - hold - or sell. And remember - the day after you sell - it will go up and the day after you buy it will go down.