Investing 102

[Blake Foster]

Originally Posted by Sieg

My twist on this - Comfortably funding our car habits is somewhat the common objective and goal of the thread.

That said, Greg's advice hasn't exactly helped Blake and SpeedTech since I've had this little Devil on my shoulder for a year or so that kept urging me to buy their Track Time package........but now a good portion of that play money is positioned to return a current average of 5.13% in annual dividends.

No worries Blake it will come your way, you've earned my business when the time is right. Until then I'll do my best to promote SpeedTech in my little backwoods network.

Without a doubt this is the best thread I've ever participated in.

See this investing thing REALLY does work!! now everybody smarten up and start investing ......... and when those dividend cheques start to roll in .................. never mind.

[Sieg]

Originally Posted by CRCRFT78

I guess what I'm wondering is if IPOs are an investment we should consider or are they a lot of hype. Would waiting for the dust to settle be a wiser decision?

Originally Posted by Sieg

I've bought three that went bankrupt and two that have floundered. I found a decent article about FB and the hype yesterday. But haven't seen any indication of price, my guess is it's not going to be cheap.

Here's the article, I thought it was a decent read...........
http://navelliergrowth.investorplace...ebook-ipo.html

[Bucketlist2012]

Originally Posted by killer69

See this investing thing REALLY does work!! now everybody smarten up and start investing ......... and when those dividend cheques start to roll in .................. never mind.

Everybody listen up...it does work...

So does the speed tech setup. We are racking the car after a hard round of tests...

All money made in the market, over time...

This thread is the best...It will only make me smarter...

And to those just getting started ?? This thread is something 10 years ago and more, you would NEVER get this info..

Now online, you get stats the bankers only had..

Greg is peeling back the curtain and giving you a tour of backstage...

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by solarguy09

But to my point of this post...When you said you just made a sizeable seven figure deposit into your account, I could feel my toes curl in my Slippers,haha.

Well Done... That was my whole NET worth, just deposited like nothing..

KUDOS.. I never envy or take things as bragging...

I'm sharing my deepest darkest secrets in an order to put PERSPECTIVE in the thread so all can see how my wheels turn in relationship to your (all the readers) own.

If I have that kind of "new" money (it's net worth that is taken into a cash position - so it's not new but it is freshly minted cash which now needs to go back to work!). BTW - this was made from a gamble taken 6 or so years ago -- !!!!AND I'M CONFLICTED ABOUT INVESTING IN FACEBOOK!!!!.... where should your thinking be?

That's the "context" I'm trying to provide. Here I sit on a bunch of new "employees" that need some retraining and I'm wrestling with where to deploy them.

I "might" and this is a big "might" put 50K in this IPO... but I might also chicken out. I just don't know if at this point in my life, whether or not I'm willing to take the gut wrenching ride these things can do. Even though it's money I can take out into the middle of the street and toss it away... The brain wants you to make a home run out of EVERY investment you make.... and when they don't go your way - your mind starts working on you. I don't care who you are or how much money you have.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When I owned a business in NYC -- my partner used to say -- "the only guy that ever screwed me was the guy I trusted". By that -- he was saying that if you don't trust the person - you wouldn't loan them money in the first place... so the only guy that you loaned money to was people you trusted - putting them in a position to upside-down and screw you unintentionally.

Here's why I'm adding this. EVERYONE thinks FACEBOOK is the next Microsoft... EVERYONE is dreaming of the millions they're going to make off "only" a lousy $1000 investment. So like the loan to your friend/customer etc just make sure you can be disappointed if it doesn't work out.

[GregWeld]

[QUOTE=billscamaros;393156]

Originally Posted by Sieg

Just ran a conservative scenario in the Schwab's retirement planner without my wifes current income or retirement, factoring retirement age of 65, life expectancy of 80..........it's projecting a surplus of $439,000. ......QUOTE]

Out of curiousity, what's your thought process to determine the "surplus"? This is the way that I've looked at it ....

I'm 52, have a mortgage, one kid in college and two more to go.

I"ll work until at least 65.

I don't believe that anything in my current lifestyle will change drastically .... yeah, I'll get the kids thru college, but something else will come up.

So, my goal for my retirement income is to have it equal to my current income. That retirement income will be a combination of SS, pensions and interest/dividends from my retirement accounts.

Is that essentially the way you guys calculate your needs?

There are MANY websites that you can simply plug numbers in and they'll show you what you need to have to retire on - how long it will last - and what you need to save between now and then etc... and they'll factor in inflation etc. So you can play with the numbers as much as you like. Ignore them at your own peril!

If you need to "make" 100 grand in retirement -- be prepared to see a gut wrenching number that you need to have to do that - and live until you're 80 or 90.

An old saying comes to mind... Liars figure and figures lie.

When 'playing' with these numbers you must be really honest with yourself about how you see yourself living in retirement...

[Sieg]

Originally Posted by billscamaros

Out of curiousity, what's your thought process to determine the "surplus"? This is the way that I've looked at it ....

I'm 52, have a mortgage, one kid in college and two more to go.

I"ll work until at least 65.

I don't believe that anything in my current lifestyle will change drastically .... yeah, I'll get the kids thru college, but something else will come up.

So, my goal for my retirement income is to have it equal to my current income. That retirement income will be a combination of SS, pensions and interest/dividends from my retirement accounts.

Is that essentially the way you guys calculate your needs?

Bill, here's the basics of Schwab's:
-Are you including your partner? Yes/No
-Date of birth
-Retirement age
-Life expectancy
-Effective Federal tax bracket
-Current tax advantaged savings intended for retirement (IRA's, 401K, etc)
-Current annual amount of contributions to the plan
-Investment and bank account taxable savings intended for retirement
-How much do you plan to save yearly to these accounts

It then summarizes your total current retirement savings and total annual contributions.

Then asks how will your portfolio be invested prior to retirement.
-Short term (expected return 3.1%)
-Conservative (expected return 4.3%)
-Moderate Conservative (expected return 5.4%)
-Moderate (expected return 6.4%)
-Moderate Aggressive(expected return 7.2%)
-Aggresive(expected return 7.9%)


Then it asks how your portfolio will be invested after retirement.
-Short term
-Conservative
-Moderate Conservative
-Moderate
-Moderate Aggressive

Then it asks how much you plan to spend in retirement
-Percentage of your current income
-Monthly amount you will spend
-Annual amount you will spend

Then what income do you expect to receive in retirement
-Social Security
-What age you begin to receive benefits

Other Retirement Income
-Monthly amount
-One-time lump sum amount

It then gives you
-Your Projected Retirement Savings and Income
-Your Retirement Funding Needs
-Your Projected Surplus
-Likelihood of Meeting Goals Chart in percentage to projected age


That's the laymans summary. How honest and realistic you are with the data input is critical IMO.

The Schwab site and I'm sure others have some pretty valuable tools for the independents who want to quickly run and save multiple scenarios.

[billscamaros]

Thanks Sieg. I'll look thru the Schwab website tonight, as well as Fidelity's. Although I think that I have a fairly sound evaluation of how I'll retire .... it's good to bounce ideas off of other folks too.

Solar - I'm with you 100% on the health viewpoint. It's all a matter of balance .... making these plans to fund future lifestyles while at the same time making sure that we enjoy the family, friends and life around us today.

Best thread I've ever been a part of!!!!!!

[GregWeld]

Who needs me? You guys got it going on!!!



Bill et al....

So here's something everyone needs to give some thought to - in a funny backwards sort of way... about retirement. I know this -- because I'm living proof having been retired 20+ years already (I'm 58 now - and plan to live to be 300!)

I - being retired - want to see RAGING INFLATION.... and you hope that when you retire you'll have the same. Blasphemous you say! How stupid is that idea!!

Well.... let's think about it this way -- In retirement I should already own my house.... shouldn't be buying new cars as often - should maybe already have enough "toys" to carry me into my 70's... so what are my costs to live? Heat, Gas... phone.... food... property taxes and home maintenance... simple clothing... the trips I used to fly to I now have time to drive and enjoy...

So... if I could make 10% on my tax free muni bonds (more than double what I'm getting now on average!) my income would be FANTASTIC! Either I could have saved HALF what I needed and get to the same income -- or my income just took a giant jump... I can afford the "inflation" on prices of basics because I'm really not buying that much or that often!

If you want to see what this looks like -- plug in some wild numbers to the "retirement calculator" -- keeping your "required income" the same -- but the rate of return on your investments "high"... use 8 or 9% (unrealistic currently) rather than 4%.

Personally -- I'd love a return to the 80's when I could get 14% on a simple CD...

[Blake Foster]

[QUOTE=solarguy09;393143]Congrats. Knowing the numbers is so important..



Also I never include my Home Equity. I do count it in my NET worth, but not for future living expenses..

That way I am excluding approx 300K of non liquid assets from my projection.


QUOTE]

I read an interesting quote went something like this
Customer to Advisor. My current house is worth 300,000(say)fully paid for. I only actually calculate it at 100,000 in value" why is that? " because I will have to live somewhere and if I figure when I retire I will down size and spend 200k then that leaves me 100k in assets to work with not the full 300k.
Something I never really thought of. In that context anyway. dDoesn't really flow with what is happening here but may add some light.

[CRCRFT78]

Just to get back on the Facebook IPO for a minute or two, would their IPO have a possible positive affect on the companies doing the underwriting? Just looking at the charts for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan I wouldn't think to buy due to their lack of performance but Im trying to think outside the box.

The current discussion on the solid market, steady eddy dividend payers is great, but I'm now looking at the gambles for those with a higher risk tolerance. I'm trying to disect all angles, sometimes you've got to take risks to reap rewards. Although it might not be for some, others will make that move. Whats your take on the possible positive affects it could have on other stocks or companies involved?