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  #671  
Old 02-02-2012, 02:08 PM
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Sieg Sieg is offline
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Originally Posted by GregWeld View Post
(I'm 58 now - and plan to live to be 300!)
My seat of the pants calculator had you funded to age 330.........but then you entered into an affair with Roger. He's quite talented and I've become concerned about your fiscal well-being.
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  #672  
Old 02-02-2012, 02:16 PM
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Facebook,

Greg you have stated before to keep things simple. You used your Apple visit to the mall senario,and it prompted you to look into it and purchase it. You have had a nice ride up.

Now wouldn't you use that same thinking in Facebook. Everyone but you (and a few) are on it. I'd say about 80% of the vendors on this message board are on it. Its another way of advertising. They currently generate income from advertising and social games.
Looking back at google as an example it started at under $100 its now $585
It does have its wild rides but how about the long term?
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  #673  
Old 02-02-2012, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by GregWeld View Post
Who needs me? You guys got it going on!!!



Bill et al....

So here's something everyone needs to give some thought to - in a funny backwards sort of way... about retirement. I know this -- because I'm living proof having been retired 20+ years already (I'm 58 now - and plan to live to be 300!)

I - being retired - want to see RAGING INFLATION.... and you hope that when you retire you'll have the same. Blasphemous you say! How stupid is that idea!!

Well.... let's think about it this way -- In retirement I should already own my house.... shouldn't be buying new cars as often - should maybe already have enough "toys" to carry me into my 70's... so what are my costs to live? Heat, Gas... phone.... food... property taxes and home maintenance... simple clothing... the trips I used to fly to I now have time to drive and enjoy...

So... if I could make 10% on my tax free muni bonds (more than double what I'm getting now on average!) my income would be FANTASTIC! Either I could have saved HALF what I needed and get to the same income -- or my income just took a giant jump... I can afford the "inflation" on prices of basics because I'm really not buying that much or that often!

If you want to see what this looks like -- plug in some wild numbers to the "retirement calculator" -- keeping your "required income" the same -- but the rate of return on your investments "high"... use 8 or 9% (unrealistic currently) rather than 4%.

Personally -- I'd love a return to the 80's when I could get 14% on a simple CD...
Oh man, that would be the ticket.... I would be my own King...Cash and no debt.....sweet...

You are right about the Inflation, but the regular investor needs to be making money on their money and low in consumer debt, with a fixed home loan in the 4% range...

If inflation, or when Inflation really takes off, I will be ready...I am deleveraged, and ready to rock.
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  #674  
Old 02-02-2012, 03:32 PM
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[QUOTE=killer69;393212]
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Originally Posted by solarguy09 View Post
Congrats. Knowing the numbers is so important..



Also I never include my Home Equity. I do count it in my NET worth, but not for future living expenses..

That way I am excluding approx 300K of non liquid assets from my projection.


QUOTE]

I read an interesting quote went something like this
Customer to Advisor. My current house is worth 300,000(say)fully paid for. I only actually calculate it at 100,000 in value" why is that? " because I will have to live somewhere and if I figure when I retire I will down size and spend 200k then that leaves me 100k in assets to work with not the full 300k.
Something I never really thought of. In that context anyway. dDoesn't really flow with what is happening here but may add some light.
Excellent, just being more conservative...When my wife and I bought our REO at the bottom, we went with the larger home with more Value...

That leaves us with the downsizing option too.. My plan is to stay here or move to an equivalent home someday.. Or just downsize later in life..

Similar to you...Maybe the house is 350K, and the sole survivor, her or me, can use that money any way needed.. 200k home, or just assisted living..

I plan to die with money invested... That way i am never spending to the edge of my comfort range...
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  #675  
Old 02-02-2012, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by GregWeld View Post
Good to hear Ray!

Personally -- I'd divide the 21K into 8 to 10 different stocks... and if you want help picking -- then post what you're thinking up here and we'll roll 'em around. With this amount you can get some diversity with sectors and have just a bit of higher risk in order to boost your overall return... balancing out some of the safer lower dividend payers.... but with 20K invested - you should be able to MAKE over $1000 per year... and reinvested -- in 5 years you're going to have capital growth AND more shares paying more dividends and you'll be making the snowball into a snowman!

IF you want to, that is.

Hi Greg
I have been researching some company's that I am familiar with on Google finance. just checking the charts and dividend payout. One thing I learned was to pay attention to the % of the dividend rather than the $ amount as it was confusing me. I was discounting some companies because the divined $ looked low but in reality the % was good. I am not ready to ask opinions on my choices yet as I need to do some better research but I have a question. How do I determine if a stock (company) is "higher risk"? I have been going through this thread trying to find the answer but I haven't found it. So I apologize if it is in here and I am being redundant. As a side This money is in my "if goes up great but if disappears I won't lose a lot sleep" bucket. So I would like a fair amount of risk.
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Ray
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  #676  
Old 02-02-2012, 03:57 PM
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It seems that Greg has a lot to teach and I have alot to learn. I am in the process of trying to invest my money.

There is alot of good info here. It is going to take a while but I am going to read every last post of this thread.

Great Advice Greg
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  #677  
Old 02-02-2012, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by 96z28ss View Post
Facebook,

Greg you have stated before to keep things simple. You used your Apple visit to the mall senario,and it prompted you to look into it and purchase it. You have had a nice ride up.

Now wouldn't you use that same thinking in Facebook. Everyone but you (and a few) are on it. I'd say about 80% of the vendors on this message board are on it. Its another way of advertising. They currently generate income from advertising and social games.
Looking back at google as an example it started at under $100 its now $585
It does have its wild rides but how about the long term?

RE: FACEBOOK


I just left my local Schwab office.... where -- sorry to say -- I get some preferential treatment as a large account type customer... so after we do some "bidnezz"... we start talking about Faceybook and they'll allocate 100 shares to me -- and as over subscribed as it is now - I might get "50"...

Oversubscribed means -- more people want in than want to sell... So if Faceybook issues 100 shares total -- there's people lined up to buy 300 shares -- thus "oversubscribed".

My VP guy wants to buy it for his kids account.... but his take is -- he's going to wait for the first big drop...

So here's my "take" - which I've discussed above... it's gambling - for those that want to take the risk -- I say -- you're all adults -- JUST DO IT! Me? I'll see what it does and tip toe into it... and even tip toeing into it -- it will be a very very very small % of my investable funds. I'm not AGAINST investing in these -- it's more about "at what price" and how much. With "seasoning" (age) comes a certain outlook on life and I don't have to jump into the fray == I prefer standing on the outside and picking around the edges...


RE: APPLE


COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ANIMAL HERE! COMPLETELY!

Apple was a public company for a very long time -- that had it not been for Bill Gates bailing their sorry asses out - would have been long gone....

When I was seeing the line at the mall -- THE STOCK -- was not up (@ $85ish) so we had not yet seen the real rise yet. The STOCK was not in demand YET.... so I was EARLY.


FACEBOOK is going to come out of the gate in HIGH DEMAND... Which equates to a high price (given all the metrics of P/E and blah blah blah) so does it RISE from here or come back to earth? We just do not know. But it was, and is, a very good comparison Bob with your statement about "everyone" is using it and wants it!
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  #678  
Old 02-02-2012, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Coursey View Post
It seems that Greg has a lot to teach and I have alot to learn. I am in the process of trying to invest my money.

There is alot of good info here. It is going to take a while but I am going to read every last post of this thread.

Great Advice Greg

Read the advice with a grain of salt.... This thread is about trying to get people to THINK about investing -- Think in rational ways -- Think about their money in a different light, i.e., as a tool to make you more money. To think about actually doing just a minimum amount of research and comparison BEFORE they invest.

There are ten gazillion OPINIONS about how this is all done... I'm just one of the ten gazillion. So what I'm trying to write about is some basics that folks can use to GET STARTED.

I'm happy that you're interested and like the thread - so far it's been a lot of fun -- and time consuming ----- THERE ARE NO DUMB QUESTIONS... I've tried to put myself out there to show that nobody should be embarrassed about this subject. We ask about car parts and how to weld and how to put bigger tires on our cars etc... and we don't seem to feel stupid about doing that.... so I'm trying to say "let's talk about investing the way we do about our cars" --- I'll show you what I'm doing - that doesn't make it right or wrong it just one way -- and then, like our cars.... you start to take that and "make it your own".
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  #679  
Old 02-02-2012, 04:38 PM
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Greg,

Thanks for spending the time and the passion to share some ideas..

All taken with a grain of salt, all put into the mix, and not followed without personal research and homework.

Being the non mechanic but crazy driver, I am drawn to this thread.

You have done something that is hard to do...To keep an Investing thread alive and growing...New ideas and discussions all the time..

Why do I say that ??? Try starting a money thread on other sites...They sink like rocks, never to be heard from...

I have pointed a few people to this site to read this thread. I hope they do..

This stuff is what gives us so much...It is not how much you earn....It is what you keep....And then it is what you do with that money, that is a key.

At least the guys on here are hardcore serious... If they buy Coke or pepsi, or one energy distribution over the next..the are doing research and putting the employees to work..

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  #680  
Old 02-02-2012, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by lmnop View Post
Hi Greg
I have been researching some company's that I am familiar with on Google finance. just checking the charts and dividend payout. One thing I learned was to pay attention to the % of the dividend rather than the $ amount as it was confusing me. I was discounting some companies because the divined $ looked low but in reality the % was good. I am not ready to ask opinions on my choices yet as I need to do some better research but I have a question. How do I determine if a stock (company) is "higher risk"? I have been going through this thread trying to find the answer but I haven't found it. So I apologize if it is in here and I am being redundant. As a side This money is in my "if goes up great but if disappears I won't lose a lot sleep" bucket. So I would like a fair amount of risk.
Thanks
Ray

RAY --- Great question!

Glad you saw the light and figured out the percentage was the important part... Frankly - there are so many figures on a page -- a guy can easily get messed up! That's one of the reasons I say to make a page and write stuff down === then go back and look at them all over again --- double check your "facts" and weed some stuff out -- re-check the charts etc. One time I bought a stock but had entered the wrong trading symbol... and ended up with 10,000 shares of some crap I didn't know anything about! Lucky for me - I was able to sell it within minutes and buy the one I was trying to get.


Now to the question about RISK....

Generally --- and this is really really broad brush "generally" -- RISK carries a higher dividend PERCENTAGE... so if something is paying 10% in a "5% world" -- it would raise the hairs on the back of my neck to start looking at WHY THEY'RE PAYING SO MUCH.... There can be MANY MANY reasons... so you need to look at the competition -- look at the sector they're in -- read as many articles as you can find -- so just google them and see if there's something in there that explains the risks (or not).

Now --- remember that this is a very broad general explanation... There could be a very good reason they pay an above average dividend. Kinder Morgan Partners is set up as a Master Limited Partnership and as such they MUST pass through "X" percentage of their income -- so if they have big income - the dividend will reflect that. This isn't to say they aren't risky -- it's just one reason for one company.

HYG (an ETF) invests in high yield (risky) corporate bonds... so they're trying to strike a balance of risk and yield (same thing we're trying to do = right?) and if they do it right -- you get a nice dividend (actually it's INTEREST so be careful here and understand the difference tax wise!) yield. Your RISK is if interest rates suddenly RISE -- then the face value of the bonds they're trading would FALL... and so would the price per share of this ETF. SO..... here's where you need to be DILIGENT and when you hear/read/discover that something is changing (up or down) you need to understand what that will do to your holdings! You can not be a SLACKER and think you can just go blindly about your life and your money will take care of itself. That's not to say you have to look every 15 seconds (like I do) you need to just keep your brain engaged. MANAGE your money and your risk - that's not TRADING! It's just being diligent.

It's like checking your oil and the air in your tires! You don't just put oil in the car once and forget about it.... and if you have an oil burner (A HIGH RISK POSITION) then guess what -- you need to check it a little more often!

Dude! How simple is that for an analogy??

Generally all the discount brokerages have some kind of assigned "risk" gauge/rating somewhere on the stock page when you're researching. I usually glance at these - check the long term chart -- the dividend - then look at a couple more charts -- then compare them with other known competitors and see if I can get a better chart with near the same dividend etc... Then I scan the news associated with the company to see if there's anything I should pay attention to...
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