State of the Union

[Paladin]

So Obama's going to say what kind of shape America is in tonight. I want to know what you guys think/feel? Case/ Shiller housing data showed new lows across all 20 cities measured today. Housing has not bottomed. Unemployment way too high. Where is this recovery the media speaks of?
I don't want to make this a political discussion, but purely an economic one.
Love to hear stories from the rest of you "in the trenches"

[realcoray]

Originally Posted by Paladin

So Obama's going to say what kind of shape America is in tonight. I want to know what you guys think/feel? Case/ Shiller housing data showed new lows across all 20 cities measured today. Housing has not bottomed. Unemployment way too high. Where is this recovery the media speaks of?
I don't want to make this a political discussion, but purely an economic one.
Love to hear stories from the rest of you "in the trenches"

I think that people tend to look at things from their narrow perspective, like if their own economy is worse off than previously, then there must not be a recovery. Clearly a recovery exists, even if you only accept that things are not continuing to go off a cliff. Sometimes flat really is the new up.

Economically, I think the critical thing is for businesses to start spending money. They are sitting on huge piles of cash because they are afraid that the next economic shoe will drop, which oddly enough may actually drop because these companies aren't spending.

Ultimately I think it's about confidence. Everyone from businesses to individuals got spooked and went into panic save mode and unfortunately our economy is based heavily on money being spent and not saved. Gradually the confidence is coming back which is something you can see in a variety of places (housing market maybe less so).

So really, what everyone needs to do is buy that brake kit or crate motor, and do your part to help build confidence.

[Sieg]

Being in the residential flooring business for 35 years, the last 2 has been the worst on record. We've cut, cut, and cut again and are still seeing negative numbers. The consumer has little confidence IMO. Many of our customers are business owners or exec's in larger corps and they are guarding their cash. The unkown IRS laws and Health Care Reform expenses appear to be the main issue.

It's a great market to hire, but no matter how good the employee you can't expect them to sqeeze blood out of a rock.

Based on my "insider" infomortion the giants in the industry, Shaw and Mohawk, are projecting the housing market to continue bouncing on the bottom for at least another 6+ months. Their operating expenses continue to increase and most manufacturers have sent out price increase notices within the last 2 weeks.

As with any resession there are certain sectors that prosper, residential housing certainly isn't one of them. Car dealers appear to be holding their own amazingly to me since they are now building $30K+ disposable cars. Insurance business isn't terrible and the doc's I know aren't crying too bad. Commercial construction is hurting, one local contractor has retracted from $65m to $28m.

Public sector continues to spend while the private sector contracts which is creating (IMO) justified animosity and tension.

Across the country 11 cops were shot yesterday..........that to me suggests tension in my book.

Cash flow and patience is the name of the game with me.

[Ron in SoCal]

^^ Well said you guys. I'm no economist, but there are many componenets to this argument, and a few that the political/media machines will use as so called 'proof' of an improved economy:

- Rediculous unemployment calcs based on new filings, not total unemplyed or expired filings (they say it's 13% here in Ca. I bet the real number is 20+).

- Stock market that goes up. What a crock. These are strong, well managed companies that are not adding people to their payrolls, leaning out inventories, hoarding cash and no capital spend. As soon as the interest on the deficet outpaces our ability to even service the debt, interest rates go up or States get congressional releif in the form of BK ability the market will drop like a rock. I saw a graph the other day that overlayed the last 12 months Dow with the crash of 29. It was eerie how the numbers looked similar. I say buy gold now before it goes to $5k/oz...

I'm a guy that makes a living dependant on companies' capital spend and here's my take: Until people go back to work and we create more jobs than we lose (and we're only about 3.5m jobs in the hole), until foreclosed houses get cleared off the books the old fashioned way, until banks start lending we will be in the same boat we've been in for the last 18 months. Further, after the economy starts truely moving in the right direction we as a country need to start paying down our national debt. That's a tough pill to swallow for all Americans (and especially politicians) but if we want our American way of life and the return of the good ol' days it must be done.

Rant over. I'm ready to get back to hot cars...

[camcojb]

My business is tied to retail, as I do services for commercial shopping centers. They have greatly cut back on maintenance and any spending. Worst two years of my 21 years in business since 08. I'm hoping things improve but don't see any improvement at all so far.

Jody

[tones2SS]

This is all I'll say since I belong to a conservative forum and this is a car forum;
I can only take so many lies in one sitting.
I'm not too keen on those smirks neither.

[Shmoov69]

Bushes fault.......Hope and change....Bushes fault.....change and hope.....Bushes fault......healthcare "reform" and evil rich people........Bushes fault.......uhhhh........Bushes fault!!!! I have detected a common theme to him in the last 2 years!!


Anyway, I'm in commercial roofing and it hasn't been this bad since 1979-80... And I'm afraid that it will be worse this time, in the long run that is.

[SWAPMEETCRAZY]

And it's so bad in places now -we've not even noticed these gas prices fixin to kick us in the azz!!! Big hurt on the co. i work for!!! jim

[camcojb]

Originally Posted by SWAPMEETCRAZY

And it's so bad in places now -we've not even noticed these gas prices fixin to kick us in the azz!!! Big hurt on the co. i work for!!! jim

oh, I've noticed the gas prices. Gas here was $1.69/gallon just two years ago (Dec 08). It is now double that at $3.39/gallon. That costs me $2500 per month in increased fuel costs and in this economy I cannot recover any of it. All contracted work has actually been reduced to keep the contracts, so I end up working way harder for a lot less money.

Jody

[XcYZ]

2 years ago, we had a complete hiring freeze - no hiring under any circumstance (which directly effects me, I'm now on-call over 2,200 hours per year). We're hiring again to replace retirees and people leaving, so that gives me *some* hope that maybe things are at least trending for the better.

But really, I have zero confidence in our country's leadership.