Quote:
Originally Posted by solarguy09
So Greg.
with the decision of the federal reserve to keep interest rates low for a year or more, and therefore continuing the crushing of the dollar by the government buying up treasuries, it seems like my commodity play of 2011, is going to be a win in 2012 due to their policies..
i see the government artificially inflating the economy and the markets, rather than to take the bitter pill now, or years ago.. especially in the election year.
The problem is, to buy now is even riskier than buying three years ago.. but there is money to be made in 2012..
we will take the pill someday ala 2008 type event , if we don't take our medicine now..
But the feds have given me the green light again, and i will take it..
just an observation 
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I'm only going to comment on this as a general response to how "I" think... as it fits into this thread.
I'm not smart enough to be able to factor in exogenous events - and particularly - what may or may not happen in the future. Who is President of the U.S.A.... what China might do with their Yuan... Whether or not Canada builds a pipeline or sends their oil to China etc.
So that's why I just focus on companies I know - with great 5 or 10 year charts - with great TOTAL RETURNS - and as much dividend as I can get out of a sector using all of these historic factors. What that does for me is allows me to just invest - sit back and let the company management figure out the details and what THEY need to do for the best outcome for their company. IF they continue to do what they've been doing - I should come out okay.
So let's use this recent news about the big pipeline from Canada to somewhere in the US.... and now there's issues about sensitive land that it would have to cross etc. and blah blah blah.
I own two pipeline companies -- Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP). I am going to have to ASSume that they are very on top of this whole thing - and most likely were knowledgable about it 10 years ago when it was first talked about... and how it affects their businesses going forward etc. This is THEIR business. I gotta trust that they're all over it.
Me? I have important things to worry about -- like where the next car show is going to be - and which car I'm going to take - and whether or not I got the dates right and made hotel reservations.
My PARTNERS (since - when you buy stocks - you own a piece of the company) will worry about that pipeline thingy. I trust them - that's why I put my money in their company.
What I will pay attention to is whether they continue to be the good managers that I thought they were. If the whole stock market is going down and the stock goes down with it - doesn't make them dumb. When the market turns around - and everything is going back up - their stock will go back up too. My job was to buy more of it when it was "on sale" (think Nordstroms half yearly sale).