Investing 102

[hifi875]

Originally Posted by ErikLS2

Pretty good jobs report just came out this morning. I'm far from an economist but to me this is very good news. It was much higher than the so called "experts" predicted and most measured areas saw an increase. Some prior months were revised up as well.

If this continues you can plan on seeing Obama back and I'm not sure interest rates will remain low as long as they had initially planned either. I don't have any big things to buy anytime soon so I say bring on the inflation. That's probably inevitable anyway with all this QE we've been doing to keep the ship afloat.

Here's the report if you want to read it:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Our government has a peculiar propensity to come out with ambitious unemployment numbers only to come out with corrections 3 or 4 months later. it has occurred many times since obummer has taken office.

[Bucketlist2012]

Originally Posted by hifi875

Our government has a peculiar propensity to come out with ambitious unemployment numbers only to come out with corrections 3 or 4 months later. it has occurred many times since obummer has taken office.

My point exactly...Do NOT buy into, the noise.That is all it is..

As Greg says, that is when the little man on wall Street makes his moves..

look back at all the numbers...They readjusted the wrong way,everytime, weeks later, to be swept under the rug..

Again, no politics, just facts...facts that can be used to make money..

[Sieg]

Nice to see I'm not the only that has developed a serious distrust for any .gov related noise.

Considering the code of "ethics" in modern politics you can't trust the noise. All one has to do is compare core campaign promises vs. their actual performance and accomplishments record during their terms.

I know this because I'm in the rug business.

[hifi875]

Originally Posted by solarguy09

My point exactly...Do NOT buy into, the noise.That is all it is..

As Greg says, that is when the little man on wall Street makes his moves..

look back at all the numbers...They readjusted the wrong way,everytime, weeks later, to be swept under the rug..

Again, no politics, just facts...facts that can be used to make money..

exactly, and the mainstream media just ignores it or it gets just a snipit of coverage.

[realcoray]

Originally Posted by hifi875

Our government has a peculiar propensity to come out with ambitious unemployment numbers only to come out with corrections 3 or 4 months later. it has occurred many times since obummer has taken office.

Apparently some people don't comprehend that it isn't like the government is the only source on job numbers. ADP who is a huge payroll processing company (symbol ADP) reported 170k private sector jobs in January. They did revise their December number down by 10%, to over 290k, but it's not exactly unbelievable that they have a better picture a month after, than a day after.

I think it's quite likely the 15% rate is doomed, but it may not go back to the way it was. I think a lot of people dislike the uncertaintity around it changing almost as much as it changing. If you know it's going to go back to the way it was, you could plan, if you know it was going to jump to 20% you could plan etc.

I would not anticipate interest rates rising until 2014 as that is what the fed has indicated.

[hifi875]

Originally Posted by realcoray

Apparently some people don't comprehend that it isn't like the government is the only source on job numbers. ADP who is a huge payroll processing company (symbol ADP) reported 170k private sector jobs in January. They did revise their December number down by 10%, to over 290k, but it's not exactly unbelievable that they have a better picture a month after, than a day after.

I think it's quite likely the 15% rate is doomed, but it may not go back to the way it was. I think a lot of people dislike the uncertaintity around it changing almost as much as it changing. If you know it's going to go back to the way it was, you could plan, if you know it was going to jump to 20% you could plan etc.

I would not anticipate interest rates rising until 2014 as that is what the fed has indicated.

this is off topic anyway, but its always funny that their revisions are always down not up. they(the government) try to use this information to either prop up their terrible strategies that have not worked or they blame the previous administration.

[GregWeld]

Here's my personal "take" on unemployment....

There's always at least 6% or so that are "terminally" unemployed. If you counted the welfare roles or the folks that never have looked for a job -- or those that have "given up" -- it would be a much higher (%). Frankly -- "they" don't count since they're not "consumers" except for the very basic goods. It's the psychology and fear that affects the 80% that counts... because they're the ones that "pull back" spending... and that's where the damage is done. IF the talking heads said -- hey! Good news! Most everyone that wants a job has one!

What I never understand is the FOCUS on the unemployed. If you had 20% unemployed - what that says to me is that 80% are still working... and being productive. But all anyone (the tv talking heads) can talk about is the unemployed. My wife spent her entire career as a senior HR person... and the only "unemployed" people in her businesses where the bottom of the productive barrel. They might have gotten "laid off" -- but that's just noise for being fired in a mass way. House cleaning.

Ditto the housing crisis... MOST people are paying their mortgage on time -- MOST people are NOT underwater on their houses... sadly those that are have ruined it for the rest of us. This debacle is deeply rooted in GOVERNMENTAL interference in the normal housing market. They ALLOWED and set up the lenders to give away cheap TEMPORARY money... which escalated, artificially the price of houses.

BUT now we're in a political discussion which serves no purpose as I think almost everyone in America understands what happened.

All of my professional life -- only the people with a real down payment - and stellar credit rating got the lowest interest rate. Poor credit -- you paid a risk premium or had to come up with a co-signer - or higher down payment. What the REGULATORS did is to "allow" (by not putting a stop to this practice) the poorest credit rate folks with ZERO down payment get the best interest rate. And we know how that turned out don't we?

[Bucketlist2012]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Here's my personal "take" on unemployment....

There's always at least 6% or so that are "terminally" unemployed. If you counted the welfare roles or the folks that never have looked for a job -- or those that have "given up" -- it would be a much higher (%). Frankly -- "they" don't count since they're not "consumers" except for the very basic goods. It's the psychology and fear that affects the 80% that counts... because they're the ones that "pull back" spending... and that's where the damage is done. IF the talking heads said -- hey! Good news! Most everyone that wants a job has one!

What I never understand is the FOCUS on the unemployed. If you had 20% unemployed - what that says to me is that 80% are still working... and being productive. But all anyone (the tv talking heads) can talk about is the unemployed. My wife spent her entire career as a senior HR person... and the only "unemployed" people in her businesses where the bottom of the productive barrel. They might have gotten "laid off" -- but that's just noise for being fired in a mass way. House cleaning.

Ditto the housing crisis... MOST people are paying their mortgage on time -- MOST people are NOT underwater on their houses... sadly those that are have ruined it for the rest of us. This debacle is deeply rooted in GOVERNMENTAL interference in the normal housing market. They ALLOWED and set up the lenders to give away cheap TEMPORARY money... which escalated, artificially the price of houses.

BUT now we're in a political discussion which serves no purpose as I think almost everyone in America understands what happened.

All of my professional life -- only the people with a real down payment - and stellar credit rating got the lowest interest rate. Poor credit -- you paid a risk premium or had to come up with a co-signer - or higher down payment. What the REGULATORS did is to "allow" (by not putting a stop to this practice) the poorest credit rate folks with ZERO down payment get the best interest rate. And we know how that turned out don't we?

I agree completely.. And I will not comment anymore about the obvious that happened.. I was on the winning end of those deals .

Back to this thread of Investing and the here and now..

The nuts and bolts of why we are here... Bubbles come and Go... But the Steady Eddie that manages his workers will win out in the end.

[GregWeld]

Solar -- I was laughing to myself as I posted this.... because in this so called DOWN economy... I've made more money than in the 10 years leading up to it when everyone had rose colored glasses on!

The brand new building (bank owned) my brother in law just bought (I'm the bank) at HALF PRICE -- will be a stellar investment for him 10 years from now! And if he holds it - it will be his retirement fund +

There have been so many opportunities handed to "us" on a silver platter it's just been ridiculous. Some days I have to pinch myself and see if it's all for real. The stock market -- had you bought or added to positions in 08/09 have doubled your money... Those that are buying property NOW will double or triple their money especially if it's income property. The cash flow is just huge and the buy in is half price.

Sorry for the folks that have lost it all -- but someone out there is going to make an absolute killing on their mistakes.

And here's where people get it ALL WRONG.... they lined up to pay over asking price for homes and condos.... and took out artificially low rate loans with short terms... THEY LINED UP TO DO THIS....

WHERE THE HELL ARE THEY NOW?!?!?!?! Right now you can buy the very same property down 30/40+% AND get a 30 year fixed rate loan under 4%!!!

Dude.... nobody wants to buy now.... they lined up to buy high and sell low. Talk about squandered opportunity....

[JKnight]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Right now you can buy the very same property down 30/40+% AND get a 30 year fixed rate loan under 4%!!!

Dude.... nobody wants to buy now.... they lined up to buy high and sell low. Talk about squandered opportunity....

We seized the opportunity in November to do just that. It was tough waiting until I was nearly 29 to buy my first house, but it's looking like our timing might have been very good. Our house closed at a 65% discount to the 2006 sale price. Loving it!!