Investing 102

[captainofiron]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

The very best time to buy is when the market is DOWN not UP.


Having said that --- even when you have a bucket of money --- it's hard to follow this simple advice. I get it.


Whenever you get nervous..... GO TO THE CHARTS!!! Stretch 'em out ---- DO YOU NOT SEE THAT THEY'RE LOWER ON THE LEFT SIDE AND HIGHER ON THE RIGHT??


Now -- be a smart guy and pull up a comparo chart of Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW).... Personally I've always liked HD better. Lowe's - to me - is too "Chinese imports for the housewife" kind of a store.


How many years do you have before you actually retire --- and then --- wait for it --- how many years do you plan to live after retirement?? My guess is - no matter how many dips the market takes - it'll be higher in the long run.

Greg you are the man.

I bought lowes at the time because it was worth half of what HD was, and it has really paid off. I have shopped at both, and I understand exactly what you say about contractor style of Home Depot vs housewife faux-renovation style of Lowes, BUT both are always packed everytime I go into one, PLUS the Lowes is easier to get to for me, haha

Im gonna take a look at the comparison, last time I looked they were pretty neck and neck for the past few years.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by captainofiron

Greg you are the man.

I bought lowes at the time because it was worth half of what HD was, and it has really paid off. I have shopped at both, and I understand exactly what you say about contractor style of Home Depot vs housewife faux-renovation style of Lowes, BUT both are always packed everytime I go into one, PLUS the Lowes is easier to get to for me, haha

Im gonna take a look at the comparison, last time I looked they were pretty neck and neck for the past few years.

I agree they are so similar that they're hard to differentiate.... like Verizon and AT&T... just close your eyes and toss a dart. LOL



And like I've always said ---- buy the one YOU like! And where YOU shop! That way you'll see any changes with your own eyes.

[WSSix]

Or, do like I did when I couldn't decide which industry giant to choose from and buy both. That's why I own both T and VZ. They both are doing well for me. I'm probably going to buy Nike and UnderArmor soon, too, because yet again, I can't decide which one to choose.

[captainofiron]

Originally Posted by WSSix

Or, do like I did when I couldn't decide which industry giant to choose from and buy both. That's why I own both T and VZ. They both are doing well for me. I'm probably going to buy Nike and UnderArmor soon, too, because yet again, I can't decide which one to choose.

Thats not a bad idea.

speaking of Nike and Underarmor, I am really really REALLY kicking myself for not investing in Adidas at the end of 2014.

it was in the mid 30s and is now sitting at mid 70s

I ended up buying KO instead...

oh well, I keep telling myself its long term, Im not trading WOOSAH

[GregWeld]

It will be interesting to have you all be "on board" here long enough -- that you will be witnessing "MATERIAL CHANGE" to McDonalds (MCD) with yet another U.S. CEO change at year end.


MCD was horrible -- they did a corporate CEO change and BAM! The stock, sales, etc went up and all was good...

The U.S. CEO is retiring and we'll have to see what happens on his watch.

My take?? I never like to stand in a tunnel when I see a headlight... I prefer to step aside - watch whatever - and then re-asses. Particularly if I have a nice gain in the name. Nobody ever goes broke taking a profit..... is my theory there. It's had a nice run.... so does the new guy make it run even more? Who knows? And that's why I prefer to stand aside.

[So Cal Camaro]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

It will be interesting to have you all be "on board" here long enough -- that you will be witnessing "MATERIAL CHANGE" to McDonalds (MCD) with yet another U.S. CEO change at year end.


MCD was horrible -- they did a corporate CEO change and BAM! The stock, sales, etc went up and all was good...

The U.S. CEO is retiring and we'll have to see what happens on his watch.

My take?? I never like to stand in a tunnel when I see a headlight... I prefer to step aside - watch whatever - and then re-asses. Particularly if I have a nice gain in the name. Nobody ever goes broke taking a profit..... is my theory there. It's had a nice run.... so does the new guy make it run even more? Who knows? And that's why I prefer to stand aside.

Interesting, when you take profits its noble, to step aside and wait to see what happens, but when I propose essentially the same thing you are stating here, I'm trying to time the market...please explain?

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by So Cal Camaro

Interesting, when you take profits its noble, to step aside and wait to see what happens, but when I propose essentially the same thing you are stating here, I'm trying to time the market...please explain?

Huge difference between Timing the market and FUNDAMENTAL or MATERIAL CHANGE.

Change being the difference.

Trying to TIME the market is sitting on the sidelines - or being invested - and then just trying to wait for the price to dip a buck -- or for it to go up and buck etc....

What happens when you're trying to time the market is you'll miss a move or moves trying to be "cute" with what will amount to very small potatoes. Bending over to pick up a dime.

Now -- Let's take MCD --- back before they made a HUGE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE with the CEO (corporate) the stock was under $100 and maybe even was flirting with low $90's.... now -- it's had a sweet run UP to $131 and now it's pulling back to the low $115's. So if you've held over a year and one day - there's a 20% long term capital gains tax to be paid... but a very nice gain too!

Now -- My writings here have always been about WHAT TO THINK ABOUT --- not what to do. That's up to people to decide on their own.

Remember what I was really talking about was to beware and aware of FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES in your holdings -- sometimes that is a good thing and sometimes you get eaten alive.

This is more about HEADS UP!! THINK ABOUT IT! BE AWARE!

If you have 5 or 10 shares in your IRA/401K -- then you don't do anything because this is a good long term name you shouldn't worry about TOO MUCH.... but the fast food game has been in some disarray in the last few years so it's not the buy and hold forever game it used to be. Coke has some serious competition with new style drinks - Fast food has it's challenges...

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by WSSix

Or, do like I did when I couldn't decide which industry giant to choose from and buy both. That's why I own both T and VZ. They both are doing well for me. I'm probably going to buy Nike and UnderArmor soon, too, because yet again, I can't decide which one to choose.

THere's nothing wrong with doing that at all.... as long as you are well diversified!

I often will hold two or more of the same type company - such as T and VZ - or JNK and HYG - or F and GM... or MO and PM.