Investing 102

[Vegas69]

I get what you guys are saying and agree for the most part as I do have different buckets and timing things is difficult, especially with stocks. I just feel that there are indicators and people do make intelligent predictions and moves based on analysis. I can tell you that's how I've been successful in my real estate investments and business. Staying educated and adaptable.

I guess my point is, where's the best opportunity for growth in the short term.

We are 7 years into an escalating stock market and 5+ years into appreciating real estate in most markets. The tide always changes, I'm trying to figure out the best opportunities in the next cycle when stocks and housing aren't so robust. I suppose it may be a situation where you have to live it. I would think the past would leave clues, however.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by Vegas69

I get what you guys are saying and agree for the most part as I do have different buckets and timing things is difficult, especially with stocks. I just feel that there are indicators and people do make intelligent predictions and moves based on analysis. I can tell you that's how I've been successful in my real estate investments and business. Staying educated and adaptable.

I guess my point is, where's the best opportunity for growth in the short term.

We are 7 years into an escalating stock market and 5+ years into appreciating real estate in most markets. The tide always changes, I'm trying to figure out the best opportunities in the next cycle when stocks and housing aren't so robust. I suppose it may be a situation where you have to live it. I would think the past would leave clues, however.

I'd guess the reason there's not a lot of responses is...... because who knows?


I just keep doing things the way I've always done them --- when something - whatever that is -- looks to be cheap or beat up and I think I can make money on it IN THE FUTURE -- I'm a buyer.... if I view whatever it is as too expensive right now... then I don't buy. Or perhaps I "trim" and take a loss or a profit... but my BASIC premise of investing doesn't change. Buy good stuff.... that pays you to carry the costs (or almost)... and that you know and understand. Done.

By the way --- nothing goes straight up. They go up - but never in a straight line.


How hard is it to sell some young couple a house if you didn't think that eventually they'd be making a smart decision?? We are all mostly confident that EVENTUALLY our houses should be worth more than we paid. We figure TIME is what will fix that. No different than any other investment. Sure a guy can buy a bad house in a bad neighborhood - or maybe a guy is just a lousy manager etc... I'm speaking in broad general terms.

[GregWeld]

Gotta ask -----


How many guys(gals) are happy SO FAR - that they didn't panic and sell because of the election?

[JKnight]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Gotta ask -----


How many guys(gals) are happy SO FAR - that they didn't panic and sell because of the election?

Absolutely! Even took some profits in my taxable account where it made sense. Whoohoo $$$!!

[SSLance]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Gotta ask -----


How many guys(gals) are happy SO FAR - that they didn't panic and sell because of the election?

Of course I'm happy I didn't sell...but I am thinking I wish I would have made my move over to Schwab a bit earlier so I could take advantage of some trades I'd like to make right now.

Hopefully my transfers will be complete tomorrow and I can dig back in. I went to a seminar at Uncle Chucks place Wednesday about the market in election cycles and cycles overall. It was very enlightening, the best part being the demonstration of their StreetSmartEdge app which I downloaded today and am beginning to get used to messing with.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by JKnight

Absolutely! Even took some profits in my taxable account where it made sense. Whoohoo $$$!!

Yeah --- I've been moving some stuff around...... I park cash in JNK -- and I've been lowering that steadily and buying where I have losers (ETP) and re-bought KMI - and some other stuff. Like taking down my whopping 100 shares of AMZN that were bought too high - so I bought 200 more and dropped my cost.

Originally Posted by SSLance

Of course I'm happy I didn't sell...but I am thinking I wish I would have made my move over to Schwab a bit earlier so I could take advantage of some trades I'd like to make right now.

Hopefully my transfers will be complete tomorrow and I can dig back in. I went to a seminar at Uncle Chucks place Wednesday about the market in election cycles and cycles overall. It was very enlightening, the best part being the demonstration of their StreetSmartEdge app which I downloaded today and am beginning to get used to messing with.

When we moved to Sun Valley -- there is no Schwab office anywhere near.... and while that's not critical - I also lost my bank when Bank of America closed all their branches here. So I moved those two accounts to Wells Fargo..... I thought I might have a coronary while waiting for all that crap to transfer because it was always the Schwab account that I mess with and the one that I can manipulate the earnings potential etc. While I'm no fan of Wells Fargo -- I don't think I can stand another move! LOL

[GregWeld]

By the way --- Someone came in recently and asked about buying GOLD



I've always felt Gold is gambling. Why? Because the basic premise for owning gold is that it's a "hedge" against something going really wrong with the world. It's a fear trade. Unless you use the stuff to make something - what are you going to do with it? It doesn't pay a dividend to hold it. It goes up and down like a yoyo and I've never figured out WHY except for fear. I don't want to own fear. I want to own the FUTURE and PROFITS and DIVIDEND (cash stream).

Add to that -- who actually is holding your gold? Will they have cash when you want to sell and cash out? Or did the world market crash wipe them out too? Something to consider. This - of course - holds true for ANY investment - but I'm not buying stuff because I think the world is going to hell.

The Gold ETF (GLD) is DOWN 31% over the last 5 years.... while Altria (MO) is UP 126% in share price and has paid almost $10 in cash dividends on a $34 purchase price (back in November 2011).

[Vegas69]

Seems like it may be a good time to buy GLD.

I've also been seeing that mining companies of precious metals can be strong in bear markets. They look really volatile, but timing is everything.

I was up Elk hunting two weeks ago near a major Nevada gold mine. My friend builds drilling sites and reclamation. He's been crazy busy this year working for the mine. They are moving some serious dirt up there and drilling for new mines constantly!

I like what Buffet says, don't ever lose money. If we put ourselves in a comfortable position, many times, we can wait for the right timing. It can take 20 years, but... And I think that's been what you are trying to express all along.

I like some buckets that flourish when the market sucks. I have a majority of $ on the flip side. My whole premise here is to be prepared to find ways to take advantage when the tide goes out. Why not hedge some money on the down cycle? You know it's coming someday.

[AMSOILGUY]

Originally Posted by GregWeld

Gotta ask -----


How many guys(gals) are happy SO FAR - that they didn't panic and sell because of the election?

Panic to me happens when you get caught off guard. You made it very clear in the beginning not to invest in things you don't understand or can't see changes in. No gambling! Its weird to look at down times as buying opportunities. I actually get more excited about the down days then the up days.

Call it dumb luck or maybe I was just listening but I was looking at doing new construction of a commercial building. Lots of people I was talking to kept saying that steel prices were going up. I bought 40 shares of (X) 6/27/16 for 15 bucks and now its nearing 30. Not to mention a very talked about sector since the election, I'm actually up 90%. I never thought it was possible. All my childhood all I ever heard was I wish I would have invested in that when it started or something along those lines from family.

Now how do you decide when to sell? I haven't wrapped my head around that part yet.

[GregWeld]

Originally Posted by AMSOILGUY

Panic to me happens when you get caught off guard. You made it very clear in the beginning not to invest in things you don't understand or can't see changes in. No gambling! Its weird to look at down times as buying opportunities. I actually get more excited about the down days then the up days.

Call it dumb luck or maybe I was just listening but I was looking at doing new construction of a commercial building. Lots of people I was talking to kept saying that steel prices were going up. I bought 40 shares of (X) 6/27/16 for 15 bucks and now its nearing 30. Not to mention a very talked about sector since the election, I'm actually up 90%. I never thought it was possible. All my childhood all I ever heard was I wish I would have invested in that when it started or something along those lines from family.

Now how do you decide when to sell? I haven't wrapped my head around that part yet.

********** WHEN TO SELL ?? ****************




I hope I'm awake enough to have this make sense. Selling is the hardest decision to make! Whether you're selling at a loss or trying to capture a profit (gain).

Many factors to think about here:

If you take the gain (loss) is there taxable consequences (Long term or short term gain - makes a HUGE difference in tax rate)

Taxable accounts or IRA?? Makes a big difference!

Do you no longer believe in the underlying reason you bought?

Have you identified what you plan to buy with the funds generated? What makes you think the new purchase will perform any better than what you're planning to sell?

Are you nervous because of the success? Or are you nervous because you have plans to spend the profit and don't want to lose it? Do you need to diversify still - in other words - taking some gain will allow you to spread your wings a bit more.

Is there a dividend about to be paid or going "ex date"?? Don't shoot yourself in the foot and miss a dividend payment!!


These are not argumentative questions! They're just stuff to ask yourself.


Number one question is really -- If you are feeling that you should take some gain -- then DO IT. It's just that simple. You never should feel nervous about your investments

Rarely do I sell all -- I "trim" -- because when I dump the name - the next day it'll open UP $10..... So I drip out - just like I usually drip in.