Investing 102

[WSSix]

Oh, I'm down waaaay more than 10%. If that's all you're down, Lance, great job! I'm still just sitting by waiting for times to dip in when it's good. I'm still concerned we haven't seen the bottom. I'll keep dripping until then though.

[Vegas69]

Housing prices are down 3.1% in Vegas from June to July. That's one of the biggest in history including the great recession. And it's probably just getting started.

[srode1]

I'm surprised there hasn't been an implosion in commercial real estate markets yet. Maybe there has but it just hasn't hit the news or bank earnings yet?

[dontlifttoshift]

I imagine mortgage rates doubling will have that effect. According to Redfin, vegas housing prices were up 22.5% in June compared to last year......and approximately 50% since June of 2019.

Even with the recent drop the SP500 is still up ~195% over the past ten years.

[Panteracer]

I get a commercial real estate news letter every day
Again Silicon Valley. Some are rethinking and subleasing their
office space but it is amazing how many of the big investors
are buying things at big money like tomorrow is going to be
a lot better.... some guys that bought a bldg at lets say $80 mil
are making $40 to $60 mil more than they bought it two years back

We also have Google, Facebook, Apple etc buying all sorts of property
My office building is across the freeway from Google and many of
the other owners on my street have sold out to Google many years back and renting back.

I do a lot of Lab renovations as a contractor and their vacancy is still
very low as the labs still need to be there so they can do their work
South SF is the so called Bio Tech Capitol of the world and has grown
so much in the last 5-10 years.. Many are moving south or north because
the rents for them there are getting so high

Hard to figure things out.. maybe Google will make an offer we can't
refuse on our bldg... until then we keep plugging away

Bob

[Vegas69]

Originally Posted by dontlifttoshift

I imagine mortgage rates doubling will have that effect. According to Redfin, vegas housing prices were up 22.5% in June compared to last year......and approximately 50% since June of 2019.

Even with the recent drop the SP500 is still up ~195% over the past ten years.

That sounds about right. Some depreciation is a good thing long term. Affordability has gotten out of control. The rent vs. ownership ratio is too far out of whack with the hike in interest rates. It will all sift out. This isn't Silicon Valley.

With that said, it's by far the most rapid shift in the market I've witnessed in 22 years in the real estate business in Vegas. It's like a light switch. Sales were down 40% from just one year ago. Inventory has tripled in months. While 2021 is not a fair bar to measure by long term, it's the weakest July since at least the great recession. Frankly, I'm surprised the market endured as long as it did.

As always, if you are in it for the long haul, it probably doesn't matter.

[srode1]

Homes are still selling over asking and buyers are making offers the first day on the market here, very competitive but Zillow seems to think prices are waning based on what I see for our home anyway.

Commercial Real Estate is another situation. My wife just renewed her retail lease for a minimal increase vs 2 years ago after some negotiation and there are so many huge office spaces that are vacant, just an endless stream of 'Available' signs driving around. Retail seems to be holding up much better than office space around here.

[Vegas69]

It appears the more laid back markets in the mid-west are far stronger than say Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, etc... Our prices shot up over 45% since the pandemic. When interest rates nearly doubled, affordability went to crap. In fact, the average monthly payment in the valley shot up $750 per month over night. That's a tough pill to swallow for an average buyer. I've witnessed a median priced property where the rents were $600 less per month than ownership with a minimum down payment. My research showed that our only chance was to sell to an instiitutional investor. We had virtually NO showings/interest on a median priced house in regards to a primary residence buyer. After aggressive price cuts, we did secure an institutional investor that will lease it. Many Vegas neighborhoods are dominated by hedge fund type investors.

One the high end, the absortion rate is very low. People are just throwing in the towel and withdrawing their listings. Conditioning is a factor. It's a completely different market almost overnight. That means it will take far more patience and aggressive strategies. It will take agents and sellers some time to adapt.