Investing 102

[hifi875]

after 200 + pages, this is still the best thread on the net.

[toy71camaro]

Excellent point.. on the apple crap they just released.

Iphone 4 user here.. and just what you said, is happening to me. I love my iPhone. But i have to jailbreak it to really love it. I'm not that impressed with the iPhone 5 specs/differences. Its not cutting edge. iOS 6 has some pretty bad flaws (albiet fixable, eventually). I'm due for an upgrade, but I'm debating on checking out an Android (Galaxy S3, or something that comes out in the near future).. or weight my options if I really want to upgrade to an iPhone 5, just to get a hair larger screen.

I dont dare update my iOS however. iOS 6 isnt jailbroke yet. And a few of the VERY USEFUL apps on there I use, Apple wont approve, so they can only be installed via a Jailbroke phone. So, here i wait...

and here i sit.. debating this.. but, i missed the "big picture".. I missed how my thoughts may not be alone, and my thoughts affect my apple stock (all 0.5 shares of it. LOL).

[96z28ss]

I think Apple could go way down in the next few years with this new CEO.
Cook and Jobs have two totally different mentalities.

He released the phone knowing there were issues with the maps. He should of kept Google maps till the next iphone 5S. The metal backing is causing alot of issues, metal easily dents, Iphones scratches new out of the box.

I'm keeping my iphone 4S best phone I ever had. I just wish I hadn't dowloaded the new ios 6. I already used the maps and i'm not liking it. Although I do like the panaramic picture taking. It will be usefull when on vacations.

[Rybar]

Interesting take on Apple, I own some of thier stuff but read about the lawsuit they just won over Google and Samsung. My brother tells me Samsung manufactures parts I think the screen and processors for the Iphone, and the Iphone 5s apparently does not have google apps anymore like the maps and I think youtube. So I would be really weary about Apple stock right now as the Iphone is certainly not the be all end all of phones, it does have a huge following but I think the Samsung/Android/Google phones will cut into that market big time if they have not already done so. I'd be careful buying apple unless they come out with some new breakthrough products again.

I'm not a techie guy, so anyone else please elaborate on this.

[GregWeld]

Apple is certainly a good discussion.... but I think you guys missed my point.

It's not about 'apple' --- it's about LEARNING from SOMETHING LIKE THIS and how it pertains to the STOCK of a company.... substitute ANY company.


Because -- if I've learned anything in the last 30 years -- it's that NOBODY can tell me in advance - what's going to happen and how things are going to react. And since we're not trying to "game" the market a possible hiccup shouldn't matter.

The thing is - nobody knows - it's all just "blah blah blah".... and here's why I've learned not to bet my hunches.... because the minute you're absolutely, positively, certain, that APPLE is going to sell off.... and you take a million dollar short position ---- you'll get up in the morning and they'll have announced a "fix" for the issue and the stock rises 50 points.

I was really trying to get everyone to look at "the market" in a different way -- and to try to see and feel --- and pay attention to --- the inputs that already affect you -- to think about them and to try to use this 'input' to help you sort out your investments. So let's say you're ready to plunk down another $2500 in the market --- and you're trying to diversify --- and you have nothing in the industrial space.... so you're a car guy and you're thinking about FORD or GM... Stop and check your own senses for how you see "the market" -- everyone buying a new Ford pickup truck? Or is Toyota Tundra replacing all those Ford F150's....maybe that "view" is worth exploring and you do some homework and now start to compare Ford - GM - AND Toyota.

I bought Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) because every time I went there - the joint was absolutely jammed with people and a line out the door.... I went home -- and started checking them out... at the time it was trading at $54 a share...

I'd bought Apple (AAPL) for the very same reason -- every time I went by one of their stores there was a line of people buying stuff... at the time - the shares traded for $85 a share...

But I also want you to pay attention to what you see on an ongoing basis! That same "sense" for something that was just beginning.... can be used to help you SELL as well as buy. Sometimes knowing when to sell is every bit as important as knowing when to buy. So keep your eyes peeled for changes -- what your friends are saying -- what are YOU thinking about "X" product line or company.

What trends are all the kids CHANGING to -- from "Nintendo" to Xbox?? From McDonalds to Chipotle? From Nike to New Balance or Sperry Top siders?
And more importantly -- do you have investments where this "trend" might be your friend..... OR NOT....

Here's an old one.... I remember all the kids could talk about was MY SPACE... it took about a year --- and I never heard MY SPACE again -- it was all FACEYBOOK... There was a clear trend there! But sadly that stock trade didn't work out --- but the signs were very clear!

[GregWeld]

BTW --- The "talk" here about Apple and the maps app etc --- is very very interesting -- because there seems to be a little "back lash" feeling and as I had suspected... a lot of people are or might just rethink their next phone purchase. To me -- that could be HUGE.

This is what I mean when I say "pay attention to what your kids or your friends are talking about". It MIGHT be just the beginning of something -- good or bad... but talk like this when it's all one way ---- can be very very important.

I wished I was able to invest in LS engine production... separate from GM --- just based on websites like LAT G. It's pretty obvious if you had an investment in SBC Inc.... you would maybe have been well served putting some dough in LS Inc.

[glassman]

Greg, i really like and agree with your thinking. Very much the "lynch" school of thought, investing based on what we can see, touch, smell.

While we can analyze all day long, we need to be "big picture" thinkers...

Regarding Apple, on one hand I think they are getting greedy with the "need" of a new connector which has me concerned about the leadership (more concerned with profit rather than consumer quality), and on the other hand the Itv coming out is highly anticipated which could send the stock soaring yet again...

I don't think greed is good, I think growth is great...

[GregWeld]

I agree....


Yes -- big picture thinking! The Peter Lynch school of investing works - has worked for many years - and for those that don't know who we're talking about = He ran (built!) the largest mutual fund - Magellan Fund. He ran that fund back when mutual fund ownership WORKED.


I'm not sure about Apple being "greedy"... I (we should all) love a company that commands loyalty - and margin - and strives to make the very best product money can buy... Rolls Royce - Ferrari - Rolex - Apple... nothing wrong with companies like this. The PROBLEM becomes when a company starts to think that they're successful and doesn't really need a customer... (Microsoft? RIM? IBM years ago?) or puts their interest and desires (Apples war with Google?) ahead of it's customer...Why go out of your way to piss people off? Just give the customer what he wants and laugh all the way to the bank. Don't change the Coke formula! (Remember that?)

[WSSix]

Seems almost like people want constant change now-a-days though. I'd hate to be in charge of a major company simply because I believe in leaving well enough alone many times.

[glassman]

Interesting perspective Greg, I do agree with your outlook on quality.

I do feel bad for these tech companies to provide "instant gratifcation" for a demanding impatient public.I see it everyday with my company, a lot of my clients want my product " yesterday and for nothing$".

It's also getting harder for us tO invest in tech because of the speed at which things move....and I'm a speed freak lol...